One point with that is that turnout with the Euro elections is always significantly lower.
I'm very wary of making direct comparisons; UKIp get a high vote share, but they take some votes from each of the main parties (especially true in Devon,half their votes come from people that vote LD in the General).
There's evidence that people that vote LD are simply less likely to vote in Euro elections; the party's avowed enthusiasm for "federal Europe" puts off a lot of supporters.
Whereas the Greens, knowing it's a PR election, campaign heavily, so their supporters turnout en masse.
The old idea that low turnout affects each party proportionately no longer applies; that was definitely true of Labour in 2009, but appears to have been true of the LDs as well.
I haven't crunched the numbers properly yet,will do so when the dust has settled, but very interesting idea, thanks.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2010-05-14 01:11 pm (UTC)I'm very wary of making direct comparisons; UKIp get a high vote share, but they take some votes from each of the main parties (especially true in Devon,half their votes come from people that vote LD in the General).
There's evidence that people that vote LD are simply less likely to vote in Euro elections; the party's avowed enthusiasm for "federal Europe" puts off a lot of supporters.
Whereas the Greens, knowing it's a PR election, campaign heavily, so their supporters turnout en masse.
The old idea that low turnout affects each party proportionately no longer applies; that was definitely true of Labour in 2009, but appears to have been true of the LDs as well.
I haven't crunched the numbers properly yet,will do so when the dust has settled, but very interesting idea, thanks.